Nova Scotia’s housing market is at a crossroads. Youth are leaving due to high costs, while retirees are moving in, reshaping demand and opportunities. Here’s a quick breakdown:
-
Youth Exodus:
- Rent is high in Halifax: $1,819/month (1-bedroom), $2,240/month (2-bedroom).
- Over 45% of households spend nearly a third of their income on housing.
- It now takes 12 years to save for a 20% down payment, compared to 4 years in the 1970s.
- Outmigration is at record levels, especially among those aged 20–40.
-
Retiree Inflow:
- Retirees now make up 22.2% of Nova Scotia’s population.
- Senior housing demand is rising, with rents averaging $2,858.
- The province expanded rent supplements, doubling the budget to $50M by 2024.
-
Market Trends:
- Property prices dropped below $400K after doubling in five years.
- Developers are focusing on affordable, senior-friendly housing.
- Halifax struggles with low vacancy rates (1.0%) and high rents, making it the 18th most expensive rental market in Canada.
These shifts create challenges for affordability but open up targeted investment opportunities, especially in senior housing and multi-unit developments.
The Affordable Housing Crisis in Nova Scotia Explained
1. Youth Exodus: Housing Market Effects
The departure of young Nova Scotians is reshaping the province's housing market. In 2021–22, outmigration reached its highest level in six years, with over half of those leaving aged between 20 and 40. Meanwhile, Halifax's rental market saw a 32.2% rise, and nearly 45% of households are now spending close to one-third of their income on housing - the highest rate in Canada[1].
In the mid-1970s, saving for a 20% down payment required about four years of full-time work. Today, that figure has jumped to 12 years[1]. As Marius Normore, a local resident, shared:
"I am in no way the only person going through this. The majority of people that you know, my former co-workers around my age, we're all in the same exact boat. We're renting. We have no realistic pathway to home ownership at this point",
– Marius Normore[1]
Paul Kershaw from UBC's School of Population and Public Health highlights that younger generations face higher education costs and debt, while earning jobs that, after adjusting for inflation, pay thousands less than in previous decades[1].
Key market trends show the impact of these shifts:
| Housing Aspect | Current Market Impact |
|---|---|
| Rental Demand | One-bedroom: $1,819/month Two-bedroom: $2,240/month |
| Market Position | Halifax is the 18th most expensive rental city in Canada |
| Affordability Gap | 12 years needed, on average, to save for a down payment |
| Population Impact | Record outmigration in 2021–22 |
The financial strain is only part of the challenge. Rising costs and limited opportunities are also affecting mental health. Tiffany Campbell, a young professional, explains:
"It has a huge impact on your mental health. There's just a massive amount of precarity in amongst my peers and myself, so that's something that we're all struggling with."[1]
The youth exodus is creating widespread effects on Nova Scotia's housing market, pushing developers and policymakers to reconsider housing solutions and affordability measures. These changes also set the stage for contrasting trends in retiree migration, which will be explored next.
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2. Retiree Growth: Housing Market Effects
Nova Scotia's housing market is undergoing a shift as retirees move in while younger residents leave. As of September 2024, 18.9% of Canadians are aged 65 or older, with projections suggesting this will rise to 23% by 2030 [4]. This demographic change is driving up rental prices and increasing demand for specialized housing.
Rental prices in Nova Scotia reflect this trend. In July 2024, rents across the province climbed 7.5%, significantly outpacing the general inflation rate of 3.4% [5]. John Lohr, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, highlighted these challenges:
"We know many people are struggling to find an affordable place to live and a rent supplement can help with the cost of rent – especially for low-income seniors" [6].
To help address these affordability issues, Nova Scotia has expanded its rent supplement program:
| Program Aspect | 2021 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Investment | $25 million | $50 million |
| Households Served | 5,000 | 8,000 |
This growing retiree population has also created opportunities for investment in housing designed for seniors. In Atlantic Canada, the average rent for senior housing reached $2,858, while vacancy rates continued to drop [3]. Developers like Helio Urban Development are stepping in with options such as senior-friendly duplexes featuring accessible designs and attached garages, priced at $175 per square foot.
The impact of rent supplements extends beyond housing. Tammy Wohler from Nova Scotia Legal Aid explained:
"Our office sees first-hand the significant impact rent supplements have on low-income individuals and families. It makes the difference between being housed and unhoused; between paying rent or paying for power or food... It is a positive change for seniors across the province." [6].
In addition to these housing trends, developers must navigate evolving regulations, including building codes, the Homes for Special Care Act, and municipal land use by-laws.
Halifax, with its concentration of medical facilities, has become particularly attractive to retirees [2]. As Canada's population aged 85 and older - already doubled since 2001 - is expected to nearly triple by 2046 [4], demand for housing near healthcare hubs is likely to grow even further.
Market Gains and Risks
The market is evolving due to two major trends: young people moving away and retirees moving in. These demographic shifts bring a mix of opportunities and challenges for investors, driven by contrasting forces.
| Market Aspect | Gains | Risks |
|---|---|---|
| Property Demand | • Rising need for senior-focused housing • Estimated 450,000 retirement units required by 2040 [4] • Senior housing delivering strong returns (32% CAGR) [4] |
• Decreasing interest in entry-level homes • Shrinking pool of first-time buyers • 42% of young adults planning to move away [7] |
| Rental Market | • Record-high rents in Halifax ($1,538 average) [8] • Extremely low vacancy rates (1.0%) [8] • 13.5% rent growth in 2023 [8] |
• Affordability issues shrinking the tenant pool • 45% of Halifax households spending over 30% of income on housing [1] • Possible introduction of rent control measures [10] |
| Investment Returns | • Bedford/Sackville rents grew by 21.6% [8] • Multi-unit housing starts surged 58% in 2023 [8] • Conversion projects yielding $80,000–$100,000 per unit [4] |
• Reduced international migration impacting demand [9] |
The market has clearly split into two segments: housing for retirees, which is booming, and housing for younger buyers, which is struggling. The senior housing sector, in particular, stands out with impressive growth. Top operators in this space are seeing returns that far exceed the TSX's 13.7% benchmark [4].
CMHC Economist Lukas Jasmin-Tucci highlights a key factor influencing these trends:
"Existing tenants couldn't afford to move...It makes for a portion of the market where because people are staying and not moving, there's not a lot of change in tenants and the demand is still very strong there" [9].
This divide has created focused investment opportunities. For example, in the Rest of Halifax area, monthly rents have surged by 128% between 2014 and 2023 [8].
Next Steps
To make the most of Nova Scotia's changing demographics, investors need to rethink their strategies. Current data shows that fixed-price construction costs start at US $168 per square foot for single-family homes and US $175 per square foot for duplexes.
Here are a few approaches to consider:
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Prioritize Senior-Friendly Developments
Create projects that cater to aging populations by including features like:- Oversized walk-in showers
- In-floor radiant heating with individual controls
- Communal spaces for socializing
- On-site healthcare services
- Secured entry systems
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Use Data to Guide Decisions
According to Statistics Canada, investors made up 37% of property buyers in rural Nova Scotia between 2018 and 2020[12]. This suggests untapped potential in these areas. -
Adjust Construction Plans
Recent figures from December 2024 show that Nova Scotia's housing prices rose 1.5% year-over-year, compared to a national increase of just 0.1%[11]. To respond to this trend:- Incorporate eco-friendly materials and smart home technologies to lower utility costs
- Design flexible, multi-use spaces to meet diverse needs
These strategies highlight the need to build properties that encourage long-term tenancy while staying flexible for future demographic changes. Focusing on senior-friendly, multi-unit developments - particularly outside Halifax - can help investors tap into growing opportunities.
Related Blog Posts
- 5 Most Profitable Multi-Unit Property Types in Nova Scotia
- The 5 Biggest Mistakes Investors Make Building in Nova Scotia - And How to Avoid Them
- Vacation Rental Laws in Halifax, Nova Scotia: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Investment Prospects
- Mortgage Bonds & Central Bank Liquidity: Impact on Nova Scotia Housing Costs
